As the Ballon d’Or award ceremony approaches, check out some of our editors' predictions about who will win what this year!
Men’s Best Player of the Year
Julia: Finally some fresh blood in this competition — the first time since 2003 that neither Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi have received a nomination for the Ballon d’Or. The twenty names are certainly a mixed bag. Despite the six England players on the list, I don’t see any of them taking home the award. Jude Bellingham was the most likely candidate of the set, but the UEFA European Football Championship (Euro) loss for England won’t earn him any favor.
The Spaniards on the list are also a cause for intrigue. Lamine Yamal — although brilliant this season — is too young and his club did not win a major club title this past year. To me, Rodri is the most likely of the three to win. Not only did he win titles with his club and country, but he is also arguably the best defensive midfielder in the world right now due to his tactical intelligence and ball control.
However, I do think we can’t forget about Vinicius Jr. He is the current favorite for the award according to bookkeeping odds. He was Real Madrid’s top goal scorer last season with 24 goals and 11 assists — an integral part of their treble campaign. Nevertheless, the underwhelming show by the Brazilian National team in the Copa America and World Qualifiers this year will naturally hurt his chances. All that to say, I think we’ll see a narrow margin between Vinicius and Rodri, but as an attacking player, the Brazilian has better chances.
Freddy: This year’s Ballon d’Or race features a refreshing influx of new contenders: From Bellingham bursting onto the scene following his arrival at Real Madrid to the performance of Harry Kane at his new club in Munich, the intrigue has not been lacking. However, after some disappointing performances for their countries at the Euro, both have fallen out of the race.
This has left us narrowing the competition down to two players: Vinicius Jr. of Real Madrid and Rodri of Manchester City.
The case for Vinicius rests on his exploits during Real Madrid’s Champions League winning campaign where he scored six goals and created five assists, culminating in the final where he scored to push Madrid up 2–0 and cement the trophy for his club. Vinicius is currently the favorite; however, I believe that his performances for his country might cost him. It’s impossible to argue that Vinicius has been the same player for Brazil as he has for Real Madrid — so much so that one could argue that part of the blame rests on his shoulders for Brazil’s disappointing exit at the Copa América in the quarterfinals.
In an award race that has prioritized performances for country in the past, I believe that this is where voters might choose Rodri. Coming off a successful treble-winning season, Rodri somehow one-upped himself, being named player of the tournament while leading Spain to the title at the Euro. This is on top of being the most important part of City’s record-breaking fourth straight Premier League title (their only losses came when he was not playing) and victories in both the Club World Cup and UEFA Super Cup.
Undoubtedly, the voting will be close between the two players, but I ultimately believe that the all-around success of Rodri will push him just over the top of Vinicius.
Women’s Best Player
Julia: My bets are on Aitana Bonmati winning her second Ballon d’Or. A graduate of “La Masia,” she had a phenomenal season with Barcelona and honestly, after her masterclass against Chelsea in the Champions League semifinal (UCL), I was pretty convinced she’d be the frontrunner. She’ll have some competition from her teammates, notably Caroline Graham Hansen, but I think Bonmati is going to win this year. I will, however, register my shock that Naomi Girma and Kadidiatou Diani were both left out of the list. Diani was the top scorer in the 2023–2024 Women’s UCL, and to me, she was definitely in the top ten best players of this past season.
Freddy: It seems pretty likely that Aitana Bonmati will leave the Ballon d’Or ceremony with her second straight Ballon d’Or. The Spaniard put up some gaudy numbers (26 goals and 18 assists) and, more importantly, stepped up for Barcelona when they needed her most against a strong Chelsea side away from home. Her teammates Caroline Graham Hansen and Salma Paralluelo both have incredible resumés in their own right and could put up a bit of a fight, but ultimately I believe that Bonmati will be the deserving winner of the highest award in women’s football.
Yashin Trophy
Julia: I think Unai Simón and Emiliano Martinez are going to go head-to-head for this award, but I do see Martinez defending his crown. I think this year’s list of Yashin nominees are mostly goalkeepers who have had a strong influence on their national teams. Martinez had a convincing performance in the Copa América for Argentina and helped qualify Aston Villa for their first Champions League appearance since 1982; I think he’ll be the recipient of the Yashin this year.
Freddy: I believe that this should be a pretty straightforward award to give out with Emiliano “Dibu” Martinez defending his title. His role in invigorating Aston Villa to a top-four spot in the Premier League with a Champions League berth, as well as leading Argentina to the Copa América title, should give him a very strong case to take home the award. I do want to make note of Yann Sommer for his impressive performance for Inter Milan, as well as his pivotal role in Switzerland making an improbable run to the quarterfinals at the Euro.
Kopa Trophy
Julia: I’ll be very surprised if Lamine Yamal doesn’t pick up the Kopa Trophy this October. As I mentioned, I think he’s quite green for the Ballon d’Or, but after his performance in the Euro with Spain and his reputation as a guaranteed starter in Barcelona’s first team, I expect him to win with a strong advantage over other nominees. I will admit that I was a bit surprised not to see Endrick in the nominations, but I imagine if he has a good season with Real Madrid, he’ll be nominated next year.
Freddy: The season that Lamine Yamal has put together has been quite simply incredible. Between strong performances for his club Barcelona and for Spain at the Euro, the 17-year-old has put together a resume that would be terrific for anyone — let alone a teenager. Aside from Yamal, Savinho has put together an impressive season at Girona which saw him draw the interest of Pep Guardiola and make the move to the Sky Blue. However, the performance of Kobbie Mainoo for Manchester United will give Yamal the biggest competition. Mainoo’s campaign was undoubtedly highlighted by the incredible goal that he scored against Liverpool, bending it around the entire Liverpool defense, en route to an important draw against their rivals.
Best Coach — Men’s
Julia: I would love to see Xabi Alonso take home this trophy. He took on a team that had never won the Bundesliga, managed to break his former club’s 12-year winning streak, won two titles and also managed to set a new European record as his Bayer Leverkusen side went 51 straight games unbeaten. I think he will face some competition from Luis de La Fuente who quietly brought Spain back to European glory. His work has been undeniably impressive for someone who was virtually unknown as a coach before he took over La Roja. These two candidates are, for me, the most deserving of this award in the 2023–2024 season.
Freddy: The season that Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen put together is simply the stuff of fairytales. Not only did they topple the seemingly insurmountable giants that are Bayern Munich who were pushing for their 12th straight title after edging out Borussia Dortmund on the final day of the previous season, but they did it going undefeated. Somehow, in every single game that a loss seemed possible, they managed to score and continue to push the title further and further out of the reach of Munich. Not only this, but they won the DFB-Pokal and were runners-up in the Europa League, with the final being the only game that they lost the entire season (51 straight wins).
Best Coach — Women's
Julia: This is the first time this award will be given out, so it’s hard to predict. My frontrunners are Jonatan Giráldez and Emma Hayes. Hayes’ incredible run with Chelsea was capped off with yet another Super League title. Her new career as the coach of the USA women’s national team (USWNT) is off to a great start as they took home the gold during this summer’s Olympic Games. Giraldez, on the other hand, took Barcelona to its first continental quadruple title. I’ll give Hayes the winning chances, as she has won titles with both a club and a national team this past season.
Freddy: It’s possible that Jonatan Giráldez will walk away from the awards ceremony with the title of best coach. Having won Barcelona’s first quadruple, he has undoubtedly done an incredible job and would be deserving of the award. Another candidate at the front of the race is Sonia Bompastor who led Lyon to another French League title as well as the Trophée des Championnes. The knock against her will be the loss in the UCL final against Barcelona, so it may be difficult for her to win. Emma Hayes also has a strong chance to win following success with both Chelsea and now with the USWNT.
Best Club – Men’s
Julia: Another reasonably safe prediction: Real Madrid will be taking home this award. They won a lot this past season — La Liga, the Champions League and the Supercopa — so I expect that journalists will vote in favor of Los Blancos this time. I expect Bayer Leverkusen to gain some votes due to their record-breaking winning streak, but I do see Florentino Perez taking this silverware home.
Freddy: There have been a number of strong years from clubs this year; however, this award will likely come down to two: Real Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen. Madrid have the accomplishments of winning the UCL for the 15th time as well as victories in La Liga and the Supercopa de Espana.
Leverkusen, on the other hand, have overthrown Bayern Munich as Bundesliga champions, won the DFB-Pokal and been crowned runners-up of the Europa League while also setting a European record of 51 straight unbeaten games. It’s true that Real Madrid won the UCL, and some may argue that this is the most difficult trophy to win in the sport, but I believe that the accomplishments of Leverkusen far outweigh the efforts of Madrid, and that they should walk away with this award.
Best Club — Women’s
Julia: Barcelona. There is some correlation between winning the Champions League and taking home the Club of the Year Award, so I see this coming home to Catalonia. Their 2023–2024 season was nothing short of incredible, as Barcelona Feminí won their first quadruple in history, taking home the Liga F, Copa de La Reina, the Supercopa Feminina and the UCL Women’s title. They also have some of the brightest, most exciting talent in the world, with seven of their players nominated for the Women’s Ballon d’Or.
Freddy: After winning the continental quadruple for the first time in club history, Barcelona should be the clear favorite in this category. I don’t believe that any other club has a resume that can come close to matching that of the Catalans, and so this might be the most straightforward award of the evening.
