On the NCAA website, the first stat that will be looked at when evaluating a team will be the team’s Rating Percentage Index (RPI). The RPI is a number given to every team that weighs the team’s winning percentage and its opponents’ winning percentage.
In addition to RPI, the committee members conduct the “eye-test,” where they look at the team’s performance (scores, schedules, record, quality of play) in order to determine which teams deserve to get one of the 36 at-large bids.
This year, the teams still waiting to see if they’ll compete in the tournament, or the bubble teams, include the University of Southern California Trojans, the Illinois State Redbirds, the University of Rhode Island Rams and the Kansas State Wildcats.
I will use the Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings to compare these teams to make the final decision as to which two should make it into the tournament. Over the last 15 years, the Pomeroy rankings have been the most accurate rating systems, as the NCAA champion has been in the top 10 of these rankings in 14 of the last 15 years.
We will start out with the USC Trojans, who are the sixth seed in the Pac-12 Tournament, which means that in order to win it all, they would have to beat all three Pac-12 teams ranked in the top seven, assuming those teams win against lesser opponents. If they can even beat one of those teams (it would be their crosstown rival, the University of California, Los Angeles in the quarterfinals) they will almost certainly be given a spot in the tournament.
They have already beaten UCLA once this year, so it is not out of the question, but Pomeroy has them as the lowest rated team out of the four teams we will be looking at. They are 44th in offensive efficiency and 95th in defensive efficiency, which puts them at 61st overall. Even with these numbers boding poorly for them, do not be surprised if an end of the season win against the number three team in the country puts them in the big dance.
Next up are the Illinois State Redbirds, who have already finished their season and now leave their hopes to the selection committee.
They lost in the Missouri Valley Conference championship game to the Wichita State Shockers in decisive fashion with a score of 71-51. That loss, combined with a 40-point loss to Wichita State earlier in the season, could be a fatal blow for the Redbirds.
According to Pomeroy, Illinois State was 106th in strength of schedule and was also the fifth luckiest team (this means their record does not reflect their actual performance). While they have the 134th-ranked offense, the biggest claim they have going for themselves is their defense, which is rated 14th in the country.
Even with that, it would take a minor miracle for the Redbirds to play again this year in anything other than the National Invitation Tournament (NIT).
Next we will look at the Rhode Island Rams, who will be playing in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament this coming week.
With no teams ranked in the top 25 in the tournament, the Rhode Island Rams will have to earn their spot. If they can beat a solid University of Dayton team, they have a good shot of making the tournament.
Currently, Rhode Island is the 51st best team according to Pomeroy.
While they do not do any one thing particularly well, they are solid on both offense and defense, ranking in the top 100 in both. They have also been a relatively unlucky team and have a top 100 strength of schedule. Considering all of this, the Rams can make a very solid case to be included in this year’s tournament.
The final team is the Kansas State Wildcats, who are actually the highest rated team out of these four on Pomeroy. Being in the Big 12 Conference, they will have plenty of chances to beat high-ranked competition, starting with their first round matchup against the Baylor Bears University. I believe that as long as the Wildcats prove to be competitive throughout their first round game, they will undoubtedly guarantee themselves a tournament spot this March.
The Kansas State Wildcats are the 32nd ranked team on Pomeroy, with a nearly top 50 offense and nearly top 30 defense.
Their subpar 19-12 record can be attributed to a harsh Big 12 Conference, which can be considered one of the best in the country (particularly by Pomeroy). They were 24th in strength of schedule and were the 263rd luckiest team, which shows that in addition to making the tournament, they should be considered a threat to whichever team they play.
To close, I will touch on some of the teams I think are most likely to win the tournament. As stated before, the national champion has been in the top 10 of the Pomeroy rankings in 14 of the last 15 years and has been in the top three in 12 of the last 15 years.
This year’s top three are the Gonzaga Bulldogs, the Kansas State Wildcats and the West Virginia Mountaineers. The first two are expected, as Gonzaga dominated the lackluster West Coast Conference, and Villanova, the reigning national champions, have played exceptionally throughout the regular season.
It is West Virginia that is a surprise, as they are only 11th in the most recent rankings and are currently projected to be a four seed in the tournament by Joe Lunardi of ESPN.
If you are looking for a sleeper team that could win it all, my bet would be on West Virginia, as Pomeroy has proven to be a great indicator for success in the past.
