The North Carolina Tar Heels, the Oregon Ducks, the Gonzaga Bulldogs and the South Carolina Gamecocks all battled adversity, staved off injury and fought relentlessly for a shot at making it to Glendale, Arizona. The four remaining teams appear capable of giving us one of the more intriguing Final Fours in recent memory.
Leading the pack, the University of North Carolina Tar Heels were the Conference’s regular season champions and the victors of the absolutely loaded South region.
In what felt like a national championship game, North Carolina had to survive a slugfest with the Kentucky Wildcats in the Elite Eight. Freshman phenom Malik Monk would drain a three pointer for the Wildcats, which evened the score at 73 all with just seconds to play.
However, walk-on Luke Maye received a pass from the driving Theo Pinson and launched a beautiful high-arching jumper that settled in the basket with just 0.3 seconds left on the clock. After a 75-73 win dispatching a perennially loaded Kentucky team stacked with future NBA talent, the Tar Heels are certainly capable of winning the whole tournament.
Working in the Tar Heels’ favor is the fact they return seven players from a team that advanced to the title game just last year, only to lose in heartbreaking fashion to the Villanova Wildcats.
The Heels are led by junior All-American Justin Jackson, who is a versatile scorer and wing defender averaging 18 points, five rebounds and three assists on the season for Carolina.
The Tar Heels boast a veteran lineup filled with former High School All-Americans, and they are absolutely dominant on paper; North Carolina leads the nation with 15.7 offensive rebounds per game.
This team will be tough to beat, but if anything, the Oregon Ducks appear to be up to the task. Many did not think the Ducks could survive the loss of their defensive stalwart, forward Chris Boucher, but this veteran-heavy Oregon team has retained its form in the NCAA Tournament.
The third seeded Ducks were tested multiple times on their road to Glendale, surviving a battle with the upstart Rhode Island Rams, narrowly escaping the red hot University of Michigan Wolverines and then putting together a dominant performance against the No. 1 seeded Kansas Jayhawks to claim the Midwest region.
The Ducks are led by the three headed attack of Tyler Dorsey, Dillon Brooks and Jordan Bell. Dorsey has gone on a tear this NCAA tournament, most recently draining six threes and scoring 27 points against Kansas. Bell has also elevated his game in the absence of Boucher, racking up 11 points, 13 boards and blocking an incredible eight shots against the favored Jayhawks.
Oregon makes the Final Four for the first time since 1939, and this team has the balance, depth and experience to capture the title. In a closely contested matchup between two experienced teams, I give the slight edge to the Tar Heels.
Head Coach Roy Williams has been on this stage many times before, and his team wants to avenge its heartbreak from last year. The Ducks rank just 180th in defensive rebounding, so North Carolina will narrowly edge out the Ducks on the sheer strength of their size.
On the other side of the bracket, the East Champion South Carolina will face the West Champion Gonzaga. This is the first Final Four appearance for both squads, but they battled starkly different expectations on their road to Glendale. South Carolina is the true Cinderella of the tournament, as the Gamecocks program never advanced beyond the round of 32 prior to this year.
The winning formula for South Carolina all season long has been tenacious defense and just enough offense from SEC Player of the Year Sindarius Thornwell.
He has averaged 25 points and seven rebounds per game in the tournament, while shooting over 40 percent from three. Thornwell has been fantastic all season long, so it is the improved offensive play of his supporting cast that has spurred this run for the Gamecocks.
The Bulldogs play in the mid-major West Coast Conference, but their play over the past two decades has been nothing short of outstanding. Gonzaga has now qualified for 18 straight tournaments, and this year’s No. 1 seed out West is the best squad of the bunch.
Gonzaga boasts the best defense in the nation, meanwhile shooting threes at a rate of just under 40 percent on the season. The Zags are balanced in both the front and back court. This Gonzaga team boasts a number of impressive non-Conference wins, and their run to the Final Four validates their status as the tournament’s best and most complete team.
On paper, the Gamecocks will not be able to handle Gonzaga’s incredible size inside. This matchup pairs the top two defenses in the Kenpom rankings, so ultimately I believe the game will come down to offense.
The metrics say that Gonzaga is vastly superior offensively, but the Zags have received very inconsistent guard play during the tournament. South Carolina excels at defending perimeter shooting, so a poor performance from Nigel Williams-Goss and Jordan Mathews could doom Gonzaga.
However, this matchup will ultimately come down to the play of South Carolina’s Thornwell and PJ Dozier against the No. 1 ranked defense in the country. If Thornwell and Dozier remain hot and get the support they need from others in the rotation, the Gamecocks can advance.
Gonzaga would win this matchup eight out of ten times, but in the end I think South Carolina pulls off the upset and advances to the title game.
In a matchup between the two Carolinas, I believe that North Carolina’s balance and size inside will ultimately be too much for the Gamecocks to handle. South Carolina will keep it close due to the heroics of Thornwell and a stingy defense, but the Tar Heels will eventually pull away in the final minutes.
While my version of the tournament ends with redemption for North Carolina, any one of these squads could realistically cut down the nets. Tune in this weekend to see how it all shakes out.
