So when the dust settles, which schools will have their names called on selection day?
In the Southeastern Conference (SEC), there is a clear picture of who’s in and who’s out. Barring an unforeseeable blowout of the University of Alabama Crimson Tide by the University of Florida Gators, the defending champion Crimson Tide will reach the playoff as the Conference’s sole representative.
Even if the Gators are somehow able to overpower the nation’s undisputed best team, it is still unlikely that Alabama would miss the playoff or that Florida would make the playoff, given that they have lost three games this season.
The unfortunately named Big 12, which consists of ten teams, will likely fail to produce a semifinalist this season. The University of Oklahoma Sooers is the Conference’s best bet at this point, but the ream is still a longshot to reach the semifinals for a second consecutive season.
The Sooners set themselves up well, organizing one of the nation’s most ambitious non-Conference slates, but they disappointed in matchups against the University of Houston Cougars and the Ohio State University Buckeye.
Oklahoma’s opponent this week, the rival Oklahoma State University Cowboys, also have two losses and lack quality wins. The Cowboys are not in the playoff discussion because their losses came to the Central Michigan University Chippewas and the Baylor University Bears, two subpar teams.
The winner of this unofficial Conference championship will finish with the Big 12’s best in-Conference record and will receive the consolation prize of an automatic bid to the Sugar Bowl, but both teams’ resumes pale in comparison to the best teams in the power-five Conferences.
We continue with another Conference that is due for a name change, the fourteen-team Big Ten. Unlike the Big 12, the Big Ten will have no problem getting one, if not two, teams into the playoff. The Ohio State Buckeyes, the University of Michigan Wolverines, the Pennsylvania State University Nittany Lions and the University of Wisconsin-Madison Badgers all have a legitimate chance. Ohio State and Michigan did not reach the Big Ten Championship Game, but their strong regular seasons have kept them in the discussion.
The Wolverines’ chances did take a major hit this past Saturday, though, as they fell to the Buckeyes in a classic that lived up to the hype. The odds of Michigan reaching the playoff are slim, and they will need a lot of chaos around the country to make it. However, they cannot be ruled out just yet.
As for the one-loss Buckeyes, they will most likely secure a playoff bid, regardless of what happens between Penn State and Wisconsin. While they did lose to Penn State, the Buckeyes are still arguably the best team in the best Conference in the country.
They deserve a lot of credit for outlasting Michigan and Wisconsin, and for blowing out the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Cornhuskers and Oklahoma.
Next up are Penn State and Wisconsin, whose matchup this weekend will determine the official Conference champion. The winner will have two losses and the loser three, so only the team who wins will have a chance. It would be hard to leave a Conference champion out of the playoff, but Penn State lost to Michigan, while Wisconsin lost to Michigan and Ohio State. Penn State does have a huge victory against Ohio State, but it also lost to the decent University of Pittsburgh Panthers.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin’s best win came against the Louisiana State University Tigers back in September. The Conference champ could potentially need to see the Clemson Tigers or the University of Washington Huskies lose to Virginia Tech Hokies or the UC Boulder Buffaloes, respectively in order to make the playoff.
Penn State should feel a little more confident than Wisconsin that it would reach the playoff with a win this weekend, but the Badgers’ odds are better than 50/50. No matter which teams reach the playoff from the Big Ten, it was the nation’s strongest Conference. Whichever teams do not reach the playoff will play in a premier bowl game.
The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) and Pac-12 each have a team that can reach the playoff, but both teams need to win. In the ACC, it is simple. Clemson, last season’s runner-up, will reach the playoff with a victory over Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech would play in the Orange Bowl if they beat Clemson, but their three losses and relatively weak resume will keep them out of the playoff discussion.
In the Pac-12, Washington will significantly improve its stock with a victory over Colorado. However, the Huskies will not be a guarantee to reach the playoff with a victory, due to the overall inferiority of the Pac-12. Colorado is unlikely to reach the playoff even with a Pac-12 championship because it does not have enough quality victories to offset its two losses. A victory against Washington would guarantee the Buffaloes a spot in the Rose Bowl, though.
My prediction is that Washington falls to Colorado while Wisconsin outlasts Penn State, creating a final four comprised of Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Wisconsin. No matter the results, though, it will be an exciting weekend in college football—as it always is.
