Adam Sheingate, associate professor and chair of political science at Hopkins, led a discussion session on the current presidential primary season on Wednesday. The Hopkins chapter of IDEAL (Inform, Discuss, Enlighten, Acknowledge, Learn) hosted the event.
Sheingate started off the session by analyzing the current presidential race through the lens of campaign financing and media consulting. Based on data research he had done for his most recent book, Building a Business of Politics: The Rise of Political Consulting and the Transformation of American Democracy, he presented a breakdown of how each candidate distributed their campaign finances, along with which media consulting firms candidates selected as their representation. By thinking about politics as a business in itself, especially in the consulting industry, he shed new light on the presidential primary system.
“Let’s look at the campaign, not only from the perspective of the candidates and what they perceive to be the strategic landscape, or parties what they perceive to be the strategic landscape,” Sheingate said. “Let’s focus on the businesses that make money from the campaign, and what their incentives are, and how their incentives are partly driving the decisions that candidates make. There’s an iron law of American politics: the consultant always wins. It’s a great business.”
As the discussion evolved into a more detailed examination of the current presidential candidates and their respective campaigns, the topic of Donald Trump’s campaign arose.
“The problem with this election is that nobody accounted for Trump,” Sheingate said. “Looking at his campaign finances, he barely spends any money on media advertising. He just gets his message out, and it feeds the machine, whereas all these other candidates are banging their heads against the wall just trying to get traction and get their message out.”
Discussion ensued among participants and Professor Sheingate about the possibility of Trump’s candidacy and nomination, along with those of other candidates.
“[Florida Sen. Marco] Rubio and [former Sec. of State Hillary] Clinton have got significant leads in the endorsements, and if past political experiences are predictive, then we would say that Rubio and Clinton are the most likely nominees,” Sheingate said.
Sheingate said that Trump exists outside of the current political spectrum.
“We’re thinking about probabilities here, and projections are not very good this far ahead. But if Trump wins the nomination, that suggests that this theory has to be addressed or reconsidered in some fashion because Trump is clearly not the choice of party insiders. He truly is a kind of insurgent candidate — not just in the Republican Party, but also in American politics,” he said. “As a populist, he is orthogonal [or statistically independent] to the left-right spectrum and cross cutting that framework. It’s not about left right for Trump; it’s about politics, or anti-politics for Trump. He’s outside of politics, which makes it so hard to accommodate him to our existing theories of politics.”
Many students said the event was a success.
“I’ve been to a lot of IDEAL events,” senior Julia Maloof said. “And I found Professor Sheingate’s discussion today of consultant finance strategies in promoting candidates really fascinating.”
Sophomore Aleena Nasir, secretary of IDEAL, agreed.
“I think it was a great turnout,” she said. “I personally really enjoyed hearing [Sheingate] talk – he is very knowledgeable on the topic and has done so much research on the matter.”
Attendees also had interesting opinions to add about what Trump’s candidacy and popularity might mean for America.
“It’s definitely interesting to see how America responds to Trump,” junior Zack Tipton, vice president of IDEAL JHU, said. “For me, Trump shows the worst side of American ignorance and xenophobia. But it’s also interesting to see how the Republican Party reacts to him as a candidate, how the establishment changes towards him or goes against him.”
Sophomore Will Yu, head of communications for IDEAL JHU, said he would be dissatisfied if Trump won the GOP nomination.
“What I think Trump’s candidacy is really doing is tapping into the dissatisfaction and anxieties of the American public with the existing political system,” he said. “If not Trump, then there may be another populist public figure who takes advantage of this anxiety. It takes something like Trump’s popularity to remind everyone that there needs to be something done within the establishment to correct these issues.”
Originally founded in Tucson, Arizona, IDEAL now has eight running chapters at various institutions, including four universities: University of Virginia, Univeristy of Pennsylvania, Swarthmore and Hopkins and at four high schools in Arizona, Virginia, New York and Idaho.
IDEAL has two upcoming events. On March 1, there is a Super Tuesday Party, co-sponsored by the College Democrats and College Republicans. On March 9, there will be another IDEAL infosession, with a discussion on the implications of Justice Scalia’s death.
