Usually at this stage in the film award season you have a pretty good idea of who’s going to take home Oscar gold. Last year I correctly predicted 23 out of 24 categories, but the races this year are much closer. The Best Picture category in particular is wide open. Birdman and Boyhood are the frontrunners, but all eight nominees stand a chance at the big prize, and overall, I think that seven of these films will end up going home with at least one award. The Best Picture nominees and their potential Oscar outcomes are:
The Grand Budapest Hotel: Wes Anderson’s quirky creation leads the pack with nine nominations, tied with Birdman. This film is my personal favorite. It’s admittedly not for everyone, but I’m glad to see that the Academy has shown it so much love.
The film was released early in the year, which means it has been available for viewing the longest amount of time and has most likely been seen by a more expansive audience. By far the most artistic film in the pack, I expect that it will take home awards for Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling. Also, considering the incredible set and miniatures that transported the audience to an old European hotel, a Wes Anderson film will hopefully win a much deserved Oscar for Production Design. And, while he probably won’t win for Best Director, I predict that Anderson will nab a statue for himself in the Original Screenplay category.
American Sniper: Clint Eastwood’s biopic about Iraq war veteran Chris Kyle is a late entrant and thus it remains fresh on the minds of Academy voters. It certainly helps that this film smashed box office records, making it the highest grossing film in the field. Working against it is the fact that Eastwood is missing a nomination for Best Director, although he was not forgotten by the Director’s Guild. Its best chance at a win comes in the sound categories. I predict a win for Sound Editing where it doesn’t have to compete with Whiplash.
The Theory of Everything: In the field of eight Best Picture nominees, The Theory of Everything is the only film with a Best Actress nominee. And even then, Felicity Jones also acts alongside a leading man. Based on Jane Hawking’s memoir, the film is as much about Stephen Hawking as it is about his ex-wife. Jones has the misfortune of going up against Julianne Moore who is seemingly unbeatable as the linguistics professor afflicted by Alzheimer’s in Still Alice.
On the other hand, Eddie Redmayne is the frontrunner in a crowded Best Actor field. His main competition is Birdman’s Michael Keaton, but Redmayne’s victory at the Screen Actors Guild Awards bodes well for Oscar Sunday. In addition, the film’s fitting score will likely hold off Interstellar in the Original Score category.
Selma: Ava DuVernay’s controversial biopic about Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. is up for two Academy Awards. The other nomination that Selma will compete for is in the Best Original Song category. Here I predict that Common and John Legend will win for their brilliant ballad “Glory.” However, Selma faces an enormous uphill battle, failing to earn nominations in the other major categories.
The Imitation Game: This biopic about Alan Turing, depicted by Benedict Cumberbatch, was an early frontrunner. Harvey Weinstein, a notoriously successful awards campaigner, has mounted an aggressive push for victory, asking the Academy to support gay rights with a vote for The Imitation Game. However, a loss at the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) all but sealed the film’s fate. It has a formidable eight nominations, but I predict that The Imitation Game will leave empty-handed. Its best chance at an award is in the Adapted Screenplay category, which it won at the Writer’s Guild Awards.
Whiplash: Damien Chazelle’s feature-length adaptation of his own short film is an exceptional debut. He might have missed out in the directing category, but he is also up for the Best Adapted Screenplay award. Although The Imitation Game won the Writer’s Guild Award, it didn’t have to compete against Whiplash, which was considered an original screenplay.
J.K. Simmons as a vicious band conductor has swept all of the precursor awards and will no doubt win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor. I predict that Whiplash will overcome American Sniper to win in the Sound Mixing category as well.
Boyhood: Richard Linklater’s ambitious 12-year project was the Best Picture frontrunner for a very long time. It won all the precursor awards up until the major guild awards, losing them all to Birdman. It seemed like it had lost any hope of recovering until it pulled off a victory at the BAFTAs, which has a strong track record in predicting Best Picture.
In the grand history of the Oscars, Best Picture and Director rarely split, although this has happened the last two years. I think it just might happen again this year with visionary Richard Linklater defeating the Directors Guild’s choice of Alejandro Iñárritu (Birdman). Pulling two hours of movie out of 12 years of footage is no easy task; therefore, the Film Editing category almost certainly belongs to Boyhood. On the acting front, Patricia Arquette has been sweeping the competition in the Supporting Actress category and will likely continue her dominance at the Academy Awards.
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance): Alejandro Iñárritu’s film about showbiz is my pick to win Best Picture. The only film to win the three major guild awards and not go on to win Best Picture was Apollo 13 in 1996 (it lost to Braveheart).
What makes Birdman so amazing is the cinematography. The film amazingly gives the illusion of one long, continuous take. Emmanuel Lubezki, who also won last year for Gravity, will surely make it back-to-back Oscars for cinematography.
However, because of the long takes, editing was minimal, and so Birdman failed to secure a nomination in the important Film Editing category. The last film to win Best Picture without an Editing nod was Ordinary People in 1980, and it has only happened nine times since the category was introduced in 1934.
The 87th Academy Awards will air on Feb. 22 on ABC.
