Last Friday the Hopkins Hillel and the Jewish Students Association (JSA) invited Professor Steven David to give a talk about the impact of nuclear negotiations with Iran and the conflict in Syria on Israel, the United States and the world.
David is the vice dean of undergraduate education in the School of Arts and Sciences and a faculty member in the Political Science Department.
One of the main areas of discussion was the conflict in Syria. David pointed out that Syria is Iran’s only major ally in the Arab world.
According to David, over 110,000 people have been killed thus far in the conflict. Importantly, the majority of casualties in Syria have been civilians, or noncombatants. He also said that chemical weapons have killed about 1,400 people since the civil war began.
David noted that there is currently a de facto partition of the country based on militant groups. The varying groups of people have different perspectives and proposed solutions to the conflict. David highlighted some of these viewpoints.
“Some argue the best solution for Syria is a multi-state system, though it is unclear how stable this would be,” David said.
However, according to David, not all analysts see peace in Syria as the favorable solution.
“If you talk to the realists, what they say is that the best solution for America and Israel is for the war to continue. For the al-Qaeda types to kill the Assad types and have two unsavory groups killing one another. And that as long as they are occupied with each other, they’re not creating mischief for others in the world,” David said.
David went on to discuss how humanitarians believe that because the majority of people being killed are innocent, the conflict is deserving of global attention and intervention. David noted that such attention was absent until chemical weapons came into the picture.
President Bushar al-Assad is Alawite, yet the the majority of Syrians are Sunni Muslims, a separate sect.
“The Iranians however are Shia and support Assad. Plus he has the backing of the Alawite community and that of some of the minority groups in Syria like the Christians,” David said.
The minority groups fear what would happen to them should the Sunni Muslims take over Syria.
In discussing how the conflict in Syria is relevant to the U.S., David highlighted the fact that Syria borders many key states like Iraq, Israel and Jordan. However, David made no suggestions regarding what the U.S. should do.
“The quandary America has is even if it wanted to do something about the Syrian conflict, what can we do? It’s not obvious. No one wants to send troops to Syria. I don’t know of any responsible party that talks about a major military intervention. I think that’s off the table,” David said.
He is not optimistic about the chances for a swift solution.
“If we can topple Assad, get rid of Iranian influence, remove a government that supports terrorism, all of this is good. The problem is with so many of the insurgents being Islamists, we don’t want Assad toppled by an al-Qaeda-linked group. That might take a bad situation and may make it worse,” David said.
Another main point of David’s talk was the prospect of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons.
“Iran is hell-bent on developing the capability to develop nuclear weapons,” David said. “About that there is almost no controversy.”
Fissile materials are required to make nuclear bombs. One type of fissile material, uranium, exists as a natural element. David noted that only 0.7% of naturally occurring uranium is the U-235 necessary for fission. While obtaining fissile material is not easy, it is possible.
Plants with hundreds of spinning centrifuges are used to enrich U-235 until it reaches the point where it can be used, either for civilian or military purposes. Many of the Iranian centrifuges are located underground or in hidden locations, making it a challenge to destroy them aerially.
The same centrifuges that are designed to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes can also be used to make nuclear bombs.
“The Iranians say they only want to enrich this uranium for use in a nuclear reactor,” David said. “For use in a nuclear reactor you only need it to be enriched to about three or four percent or at most 20% [abundance].”
The other route to nuclear capability is acquiring plutonium, a man-made element created in nuclear reactors.
According to David, the Iranians are currently building a nuclear reactor in Arak, Iran.
“We and the Israelis are very concerned that the purpose of the reactor is not to produce energy but simply to create plutonium to give them another path to a nuclear weapon,” David said.
However, David made clear that the Iranians will demand the right to enrich uranium in any negotiated settlement.
“Our fear, the Israeli fear, is that [in] giving them this right means, they will use it to make a nuclear weapon,” David said.
However, on this topic, David noted that the United States and Israel have different views.
“President Obama has said he will not accept Iran with nuclear weapons. The Israelis have said they don’t want Iran to have the capability to produce nuclear weapons. It’s a bit of a nuanced difference, but it’s a difference,” David said.
According to David, the solution to the issue is to heavily regulate and inspect production of fissile materials. However, there is a fear that if not heavily regulated, Iran will have “breakout capability” and build a bomb between inspections.
Attendees generally agreed with David’s assessment of the situation.
“It’s an extremely important issue, and I think the speaker did an excellent job of both expressing that importance and fully explaining the depth of the issue,” freshman Nick Mangano said. “The importance of the issue can be understood through multiple perspectives, but simply when considering American interests, a nuclear Iran is very unsettling. Regardless of your personal stance, the speaker was knowledgeable and engaging.”
The Assistant Director of Hillel Jonathan Falk echoed Mangano’s sentiments.
“I thought Dr. David gave incredible insight into the tough and sad situation in Syria. It is very important for us at Hillel to hear the many facets and ideas that are happening around the world,” Falk said.
