Sure, the bitter, protracted contest between Mitt Romney and Co. is technically still an open-ended question. But it doesn't take a number-crunching analyst to tell you that for underdogs Gingrich, Santorum and Paul, it's already settled. Even now, strategists on both sides of the aisle are busy prepping the ring for what's looking to be the final face-off between Mitt Romney — the GOP's de facto nominee — and President Barack Obama.
And things are just beginning to get interesting. For the first time in months, the economy is looking up, and the gains it's made are holding steady. The unsightly hordes of self-proclaimed revolutionaries who've cornered the market on "anti-establishment" frustration — from Occupy Wall Street to the original Tea Partiers — have somewhat quieted. From the East Coast to the West, it seems, the tone has changed from widespread malaise to one of cautious optimism, with a handful of data-happy economists speculating that the recession itself may finally be in recession.
Which poses a bit of an existential crisis for Republicans in the months leading up this November's showdown. See, the "Party of ‘Just Say No'" shtick will only take you as far as the economic data lets you — and while it might be a little early for drunken, nationwide celebrations, it's only a matter of time until the Right's divisive "doomsday" rhetoric outwears its welcome. Don't get me wrong: the flat rate of growth, along with our unchanged long-term unemployment numbers, prove we're still saddled with serious economic woes. Rising oil prices and fallout from Greece's globally felt crisis loom ominously on our horizon. But the national mood is changing considerably — something that says we're on the mend in more ways than one — and many can't help but notice our discourse these days seems less helpless than hopeful.
Hope: there's a word that seems long retired from our political lexicon, right alongside the impassioned "Yes We Can!" and "Change You Can Believe In." But it's coming back in a big way – slowly, if ever so surely – and I suspect whichever candidate can carry that sentiment over into campaign territory will catch a windfall going into November.
That's stellar news for Obama, not because the Democratic Party boasts any kind of ideological monopoly on "hope" but because of the rhetorical wall Republicans have been backing themselves into, consentingly, over the past four years. It was Republicans, for instance, who chose to speak in absolutes, alleging that the President's "socialist policies" were putting the economy in an inescapable "stranglehold." It was Republicans who derided his grand, expensive agenda as a project with no payoff, at a time when liberals' starry-eyed faith seemed foolish, incomprehensible. And if the economic data hadn't improved — if the manufacturing and automobile industries hadn't caught a second wind — they would've had the numbers to back them up.
But the circumstances surrounding such rhetoric have changed dramatically over the past few months. Even now, the "Obama isn't working!" catchphrase coined by Romney, Gingrich, Santorum and Paul has faded from a shrill chorus to a sheepish whimper. Of course, these changing tides don't necessarily invalidate the principles behind fiscally conservative rhetoric, but they do cast the "nature" of the rhetoric itself in a more unattractive light. If the political and economic weathervanes are to be trusted, employing the same kind of fear-mongering, fatalistic language would not only fall at odds with reality, but at odds with national spirits. Simply put: the tone of the conversation has changed. We're no longer slinging accusations about who's responsible for what economic ruin, and why. We're shouldering past the hysterical rage, the dreadful caricatures of "Obama as Marx" or as "Secret Kenyan." Instead, we're preparing to talk about possibility — the possibility, that is, of recovery and resurgence, of revitalization and reunification. For the first time in years, it seems, we're looking to the future.
So here's to a new brand of heartland optimism — a thriving, national electorate licking its wounds in recovery. Sure, there's a little blood in our mouth, but also a kind of survivalist grit and vigor that's so deeply American, so fundamental to our very existence. To seize that mantle — that audacious promise of a tomorrow — wouldn't come close to reversing the wear and tear produced by years of class, culture and ideological warfare. But it would, in near certain terms, comprise a first, courageous step in the right direction.
In the end, it's just a matter of which candidate is more capable of harnessing national momentum. According to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, 50 percent of Americans approve of Obama's job performance — his highest numbers since the killing of Osama Bin Laden. Likewise, Obama leads former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney 50 percent to 44 in a hypothetical match-up, breaking the virtual tie recorded last December.
If things go Obama's way — that is, if the numbers stay where they're supposed to — it'll prove increasingly difficult to unseat him in November. But if Republicans want to give their candidates a fighting chance, they'll need to find a more uplifting, ambitious political mandate and the self-restraint to stay on message.
