With most of the major award shows of the season in the can, Hollywood turns its attention to the Oscars. Predicting Oscar nominations is not a difficult thing to do.
One can predict the (usual) five candidates for each category with the aid of the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAGs). The latter is generally more reliable as the Globes divide the field into Best Drama and Best Comedy/Musical.
The Globes, however, might come in handy for predicting this year's nominees for Best Picture: The Academy decided to place 10, as opposed to five, films in contention for the award.
Considering that 2009 was a less than stellar year for strong, critically-hailed movies, we can expect some summer blockbusters to sneak their way into the pool. Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious: Based on the Novel Push By Sapphire and Up In The Air are all sure bets for the category. Though I found the ending to be a bit flat, An Education will also likely make the list.
Critical and commercial flops that initially garnered much media attention, such as Nine and The Lovely Bones, would normally be shut out, but given the films' personnel and credentials it is possible that they could be included.
District 9 and Star Trek were two well-received summer cash cows that may round out the top 10. Some alternates (likely in the place of Nine or The Lovely Bones) would be films by Academy darlings. Invictus, directed by Clint Eastwood, who receives a nomination practically every year, and A Serious Man, written and directed by the Coen brothers, are two such films.
Avatar's streak may come to an end; it could be a toss up between Up in the Air and Inglorious Basterds. In my opinion, the latter has the strongest shot at Best Picture.
Best Director nominations will most likely go to Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker, James Cameron for Avatar, Clint Eastwood for Invictus, Jason Reitman for Up in the Air, and Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds. Tarantino and Reitman will likely win for Original and Adapted Screenplay respectively, and Eastwood's somewhat recent win for Million Dollar Baby will leave ex-spouses Cameron and Bigelow to duke it out for the prize.
If Bigelow wins, she will be the first female ever to do so. Typically, the Academy shows some love to one of the big five pictures by giving them each at least one award, which means that Bigelow does have a fighting chance.
If she wins, however, Avatar's odds for Best Picture will increase, for the sake of equity. Best Actor would appear to be a lock for Crazy Heart's Jeff Bridges, but his situation is reminiscent of Mickey Rourke's last year: a veteran frontrunner cleaning up all the awards, until a younger Hollywood favorite dark horse sneaks up from behind to win the Oscar.
George Clooney (for Up in the Air) or Colin Firth (for A Single Man) could be the Sean Penn to Bridges's Mickey Rourke. Morgan Freeman and Jeremy Renner will likely round out the nominees.
Sandra Bullock, Carey Mulligan, Gabourey Sidibe, Helen Mirren and Meryl Streep will be up for Best Actress.
Hopefully, Sandra Bullock will lose some of the momentum she has racked up for her turn in The Blind Side. She is well-liked throughout Hollywood, but I can not comprehend how her performance can really be deemed the best of the year - especially given her fellow (probable) nominees.
I loved Carey Mulligan in An Education, but she is young and will likely get her chance at the category in the coming years. And of course there is Meryl Streep. It is a crime that Hilary Swank has two Best Actress statues, while Meryl has just one.
Best Supporting Actor will go to a well-deserved Christoph Waltz for Inglorious Basterds, with Stanley Tucci, Christopher Plummer, Woody Harrelson and Matt Damon rounding out the nominees.
Best Supporting Actress also appears to be a lock for Mo'nique, with Penelope Cruz, Vera Farmiga, Anna Kendrick and probably Julianne Moore in the rear.
At this point, the only real contests appear to be in the Best Picture and Best Director categories. Hopefully, the Academy will stir some things up in the acting arena - either with nominations or awards - to make the show a bit less predictable.
