With three months to go until the democratic primary, the field of candidates for Baltimore Mayor remains packed. As of Feb. 16, more than two dozen individuals have declared their candidacy, with 12 of them vying for the Democratic nomination. The incumbent mayor, Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, will not be running for reelection.
In a city where the last Republican mayor was elected in 1963, the general election is often considered a formality, and whoever wins the Democratic primary on April 26 will most likely win the election.
A poll for the Democratic primary was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from Jan. 11–17 and interviewed 356 registered Democrats. The poll showed former mayor Sheila Dixon leading the race with 27.2 percent, with State Senator Catherine Pugh following at 18.3 percent. City Councilman Carl Stokes was third with 14.3 percent, and Councilman Nick J. Mosby placed fourth with 6.7 percent. Twenty-one percent were undecided.
DeRay Mckesson, a founder of the Black Lives Matter movement and a Baltimore native, joined the Democratic race on Feb. 3, citing his desire to address his concerns, including police brutality and structural racism.
The current front-runner, Sheila Dixon, is running on a platform based on her previous mayoral stint, under which Baltimore crime rates fell by 11 percent. She also plans to address joblessness and Baltimore’s “Public Health Crisis,” which she considers to be the root of the city’s crime. Additionally, she is pledging a program to equip schools with mentoring and tutoring services.
“I think that the dominant candidate is going to be Sheila Dixon.” — Matthew Crenson, Professor Emeritus in Political Science
Dixon was forced to step down in 2010, following the revelation that she had stolen $600 worth of gift cards meant for Baltimore’s poorest residents. Rawlings-Blake, then president of City Council, became mayor and won the subsequent 2011 election.
Matthew Crenson, professor emeritus in the University’s political science department and a Baltimore local, gave his predictions for the race.
“I think that the dominant candidate is going to be Sheila Dixon. She has moved up to 27 percent from 23 percent in earlier polls,” he said. “That’s beyond the margin of error. The voters she has, according to the previous Sun poll, are going to stick with it. They’re committed.”
However, Crenson also acknowledges that Dixon was forced out of her previous mayoral term because of the corruption scandal.
“The problem she has is that with 50 percent of the voters, her problem with the gift cards prevents them from voting for her, which means she may have some difficulty expanding her base if somebody happens to emerge as a threat later in the campaign,” he said. “So far that doesn’t seem to be happening.”
Mosby and Stokes are each running economics-focused campaigns. Councilman Mosby’s 15 point plan aims to cut property taxes by 15 percent, charge residents separately for trash disposal, provide financial incentives for hiring ex-offenders and encourage education reform. Crenson expressed his concern that Mosby might face some challenges.
“Mosby is an interesting case because his wife is the state’s attorney, which adds to his visibility but creates a problem for him in the eyes of many Baltimoreans,” he said. “The idea that those two posts are occupied by a married couple is going to create some difficulty.”
Stokes’ platform includes a 14-page plan to reduce property taxes by 40–50 percent and expand the Charm City Circulator bus lines.
Crenson discussed where the candidates are likely getting their money.
“Lots of small contributions from Baltimore is a good indication of political success because it means you have a lot of voters wrapped up,” he said. “If you have a lot of money in big contributions and not from Baltimore, that may signal a weakness.”
Crenson rounded out his discussion of the candidates by focusing on whether he believes the race is about tackling Baltimore’s crime problem or handling its economy.
“Right now the city is suffering from the aftermath of the Freddie Gray uprising and the day of rioting, and it very much needs to get around that. Its image nationally may discourage people from out of town from investing in Baltimore because they don’t feel it’s a safe place,” he said.
He went on to weigh the economic issues against safety concerns.
“Baltimore does have the highest property tax rate in the state. It also has the highest piggyback income tax. It’s a very expensive place to own property,” he said. “It’s probably true that a reduction in property tax would help, but a reduction in crime would probably help even more.”
